How to Follow Hurricane Irma
Sunday, September 17th, 2017How to Follow #HurricaneIrma
https://www.NYTimes.com/2017/09/06/upshot/how-to-follow-hurricane-irma.html Presentations of weather #uncertainty – cones, spaghetti plots, ensemble forecasts, &c
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Besides individual model runs, there are two other types of
model-based maps you might see on the internet. They’re both “spaghetti plots,” which depict many forecast tracks…..
While you might think that these capture the full range of
uncertainty, they often do not. They’re even more prone to understate the total uncertainty than the N.H.C. “cone.”
…
Another type of spaghetti plot shows an ensemble forecast. Unlike a typical “determinist” forecast, which takes current conditions and simulates a single scenario forward, an ensemble model varies initial conditions slightly and then simulates, propagating uncertainty through the forecast.
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